Shipments ranging from fresh produce to airplane parts are in limbo as an escalating Middle East conflict reduces the world’s air cargo capacity by more than one-fifth and pushes up freight rates, with executives bracing for backlogs of goods.
The U.S. and Israeli air war against Iran has grounded passenger and freighter flights across the region, including in key global air cargo hubs Doha and Dubai.
That has led to a 22% reduction in global air cargo capacity between February 28 and March 3 compared with a four-day period last month before the Chinese New Year holiday, according to data from aviation and logistics consulting firm Aevean.
“It is an absolute halt of the supply chain to the Middle East,” said Abdol Moaberry, CEO of Florida-based GA Telesis, which provides aircraft parts and repair services and is unable to move parts to the region or to receive parts that need repairs.
Air cargo accounts for about one-third of global trade by value, according to airline trade group International Air Transport Association, with goods ranging from Apple AAPL.O products to temperature-controlled pharmaceuticals, fresh fruit and auto parts carried both in the bellies of passenger planes and on dedicated freighters.
Asia-Europe Routes Affected
Middle Eastern carriers account for about 13% of global air cargo capacity, according to Aevean.
Brian Bourke, chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics, said Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, which rely more heavily on Middle Eastern hubs, would experience a greater impact.
“Companies in the U.S. should be paying attention,” he said. “But it’s not as immediate as if you’re in Europe or Asia or Australia.”
Air cargo capacity on the corridor from Asia to the Middle East to Europe declined 39% since the start of the conflict, even as direct capacity between China and Europe increased by 26%, Aevean said.
Chinese airlines could hold a competitive edge, said Joshua Ng, director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, as they can fly through Russian airspace where many rivals are banned, giving them a shorter flight time and lower operating costs.
According to consultancy Freightos’ air index, rates from Southeast Asia to Europe have climbed more than 6% to $3.82/kg since Friday, with South Asia rates up 3% to Europe and 5% to the United States.
“Whenever operational disruptions increase costs or reduce capacity, air cargo rates tend to experience upward pressure,” Ng said. “In the near term, shippers may begin to see higher spot rates on the Asia–Europe corridor, particularly if the disruption persists and capacity constraints continue.”
Stefan Paul, CEO of Swiss logistics group Kuehne+Nagel, said on Tuesday that by the beginning of next week there could be “certain backlogs arising in Southeast Asia and in China for the European and the U.S. marketplace.”
Moving Plane Parts
Critical aircraft parts often move by air, and prolonged disruptions could slow Middle East carriers’ efforts to restore flights. In 2025, aerospace air shipments to and from the region made up 6.7% of global aerospace shipments, Kuehne+Nagel said.
“Even if the aircraft is not flying because of the war, the aircraft still has to be airworthy for when the skies open up,” said Amyr Qureshi, senior vice president at Aventure Aviation.
Aventure supports about 70 airlines, including Etihad Airways, Emirates and Qatar Airways, and stocks key parts such as engine valves and avionics at its U.S. distribution center in Atlanta.
Qureshi said many carriers have been calling urgently for parts, as sometimes a single component needed to release an aircraft from maintenance. “If the part doesn’t arrive on time the airplane sits in the hangar more,” he said, describing it as a “domino effect.”
In better news, Qureshi said some parts that were due to ship from Dubai airport for repair in Atlanta were picked up by a freight forwarder on Wednesday.
“There is a gradual improvement,” he said. “But these things are so unpredictable… tomorrow everything comes to a standstill.”
