Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now issued its April forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing its extended range numbers from December and citing an expectation of moderate to strong El Nino conditions.
For the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1st, TSR forecast 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 125 back on December 12th 2025.
Now, the early April forecast update shows that a lot has changed in meteorologists thinking about the state of ENSO, with forecasts now suggesting an El Nino event in the Pacific of the magnitude to create a meaningful influence on the Atlantic tropics.
TSR’s April forecast update now calls for 12 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and just 1 major hurricane for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
In addition the forecast for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has fallen dramatically, almost halving, with TSR’s new figure just 66.
Tropical Storm Risk said that its new April forecast update suggests a 2026 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season with activity levels around 40% below the 1991-2020 30-year norm.
“The primary factor influencing the lowering of the TSR April forecast for 2026 North Atlantic hurricane activity to be around 40% below the 1991-2020 climatology is the anticipated moderate or strong El Nino conditions through summer and autumn 2026. It should be noted that some uncertainties remain and the forecast skill is historically low at this lead time,” TSR explained.
TSR’s forecast US landfall numbers for the 2026 season are for 1 hurricane and 3 tropical storms to hit the coastline, again below the 30-year norm of 1.6 and 3.8 respectively.
The TSR forecast can be compared to the one from Colorado State University we covered yesterday, which calls for 13 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, with ACE at an index level of 90, again below the norm.
Once again, we have to caution that forecasts are considered directionally helpful at best at this still early stage of the year. It only takes one major storm to make landfall in a region with high economic and insured values for there to be meaningful impacts to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets.
We will be tracking the tropics as the season begins and have now set up our typical 2026 Atlantic hurricane season page, which will be updated as more forecasts are released and when any tropical storm activity occurs.
