Verisk, the data analytics and technology provider, has announced a major update to its Tropical Cyclone Model for the United States, delivered through its new cloud-native Synergy Studio platform, providing a more realistic assessment of individual risk and portfolio exposure across insurance, reinsurance, and capital markets.
The company noted that it combines an updated stochastic event catalog, peer-reviewed wind-field methodology, and a comprehensive reevaluation of vulnerability to better capture how hurricanes behave today and how that ultimately translates into losses, such as damage driven by storm surge in coastal areas and rainfall‑driven inland flooding, delivering a more accurate and transparent view of risk.
In addition, the updated model is said to have undergone extensive external evaluation, including academic peer review and publication of the new hurricane wind-field methodology, and review and evaluation of the new event set and vulnerability modules by independent experts.
Verisk noted that this procedure enhances the internal scientific validation conducted by its domain-area specialists and demonstrates the degree of rigor necessary for risk assessments that guide critical public and private decision-making
Verisk also explained that the updated model adopts a single, near‑present view of tropical cyclone risk that reflects the impacts of both global warming and the natural variability of the ocean and atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin.
“This approach represents a significant advance in how tropical cyclone behaviour and impacts are modeled, enabling a more realistic and robust view of risk,” Verisk said.
Adding: “The update comprehensively modernises the representation of tropical cyclone risk—from the underlying event catalog and hazard framework to vulnerability and loss dynamics. This includes a reevaluation of how buildings, infrastructure, and communities sustain damage, reflecting changes in construction practices, mitigation, and exposure that increasingly shape actual losses.”
Among the significant scientific advancements featured in the model update is the modernisation of tropical cyclone hazard modeling, which greatly improves the depiction of wind fields, storm surge, and inland flooding. This includes a refined simulation of storm structure, land interaction, the effects of event duration, and the physical realism of these associated risks.
Additionally, the update also incorporates enhanced vulnerability modeling features that illustrate how contemporary buildings and infrastructure endure peak hurricane winds and their duration. This is achieved by integrating updated construction practices, mitigation strategies, and an analysis of component-level damage behavior.
The update also enhances the model’s ability to differentiate risk between older and newer structures, effectively capturing the critical factors that determine how similar storms can lead to markedly different damage and recovery results.
Furthermore, a reengineered stochastic event catalog encompasses a broader range of plausible tropical cyclone behaviours, including tropical storms and extratropical transitions. Event tracks are produced using atmospherically and oceanically consistent variables known to affect tropical cyclone activity, thereby providing more physics-based insights in the simulation of rare tail events.
“Together, these advances provide insurers and reinsurers with a clearer view of individual risks, drivers of loss, and how portfolios are exposed to extreme but plausible events—particularly in high exposure regions such as the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast, where multiple risks increasingly interact,” Verisk added.
“Catastrophe models increasingly inform decisions beyond insurance pricing, including reinsurance and insurance‑linked securities (ILS), as well as housing, infrastructure, capital markets, and climate risk disclosure. The updated model is designed to support risk evaluations at that intersection: results that can be explained to executives, presented to regulators, and defended under external review,” the firm continued.
As highlighted, the updated model, along with Verisk’s global suite of catastrophe models, is delivered on Verisk Synergy Studio, a cloud‑native platform that’s designed to unify catastrophe modelling, exposure management, and risk analytics in a single environment.
Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, commented: “Insurance leaders are navigating a more complex and interconnected risk environment than ever before. The updated U.S. Tropical Cyclone model and Verisk Synergy Studio are designed to support those decisions—providing a more defensible view of risk on a modern platform that helps organizations assess exposure, manage capital, and operate with confidence in today’s climate.”
Jay Guin, executive vice president and chief research officer at Verisk, said: “This update reflects years of advances in atmospheric science, hazard modelling, and loss validation. By incorporating a near‑present view of climate conditions and improved representations of wind, storm surge, and flooding, the model provides a more realistic picture of how hurricanes behave and how losses may occur today—not decades ago.”
Verisk also confirmed that the updated model and Verisk Synergy Studio will both be available starting June 15, 2026.
The company said it is supporting clients through a phased migration process, with validation resources and model documentation available to support adoption.
Furthermore, the Verisk Tropical Cyclone Model for the United States is developed by AIR Worldwide Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Verisk’s AIR Worldwide risk models remain the most-frequently used for third-party modelling of new 144A catastrophe bonds at this time, and the company also acts as a calculation agent for many issuances across the market too.
