Warming global temperatures will probably mean more hailstorms with larger and more damaging hailstones, a study published in a prestigious, peer-reviewed journal predicts, echoing troubling trends identified in by other data sources.
“Here we show a 36.5%–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, with the magnitude determined by the emission scenario,” reads the abstract for “Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world,” posted last week in the journal Nature.
Researchers from Peking University and from Central Michigan University found that the frequency of hailstones larger than 1.18 inches in diameter will rise by as much as 52%, while the chance of smaller stones will likely decline. It’s all thanks in large part to warmer temperatures and higher humidity near the surface of the planet, the paper noted.
“We’ve seen record hailstones in recent years. I find this extremely concerning because we’re not really building our environment to be resilient to hail,” co-author John Allen, of Central Michigan, told the Associated Press. “We don’t include this in our design standards, for example, for built homes in the U.S. or indeed internationally.”
The culprit is more water vapor in a warmer atmosphere. It’s almost 4% more per degree Fahrenheit, which increases the available energy and stronger updrafts, Allen said. That leads to more thunderstorms capable of producing hail.
As more homes, commercial buildings, solar panels and vehicles move into hail-prone areas, losses will likely increase.
The study seems to reinforce recent reports from State Farm Insurance and from Cotality, which show increasing numbers of claims and losses from hail around the United States.
State Farm said in April that its hail claims, nationwide, rose 12% from 2024 to 2025, to more than $5 billion. In Texas and Kansas, claims jumped by more than 27% in that time, but fell significantly in Illinois and Colorado, Carrier Management reported.
Cotality’s report, released in March, said hailstorms can now cause losses comparable with hurricanes. The firm, formerly known as CoreLogic, is a property data and analytics firm. It noted that in 2025, the U.S. recorded 142 days with damaging hail. That’s seven more days than in 2024 and well above the 20-year average of 122 days, the report said.
A severe hailstorm expected to occur once every few decades can generate nearly $30 billion in insured losses – on par with a major hurricane, Cotality said. The 2026 Cotality Severe Convective Storm Risk Report can be seen here.
Allen, speaking to AP about his Nature study, said hailstorms actually cause more damage than tornadoes and hurricanes. Nationwide, the icy balls cost the country about $10 billion a year, he said.
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