Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to thin early on Friday, just a day after a burst of oil flows through the waterway as the US and Iran vowed to lift a dual blockade.
No tankers were seen moving outbound from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning, though one very large crude carrier re-appeared off the Omani capital Muscat, suggesting it had crossed the strait. An Iran-linked liquefied petroleum gas carrier and a Norwegian-flagged products tanker made inward transits.
Meanwhile, four fully-laden very large crude carriers stuck inside the Persian Gulf appeared to be approaching the strait. Two India-linked VLCCs began sailing toward the strait on Friday, while two others sailed east in the gulf to be nearer to the waterway.
The relative calm came as doubts emerged over whether the US and Iran would be able to work out contentious details in the memorandum of understanding in the 60-day period. Plans between the two sides to meet in Switzerland were canceled, while Israeli forces said they struck southern Lebanon despite warnings from Washington not to do so.
Read more: US and Iran Delay Nuclear Talks as Lebanon Clashes Worsen
“The immediate collapse of the first scheduled negotiation round represents a setback to regional stabilization efforts,” maritime risk company Marisks said Friday in a note to clients seen by Bloomberg News. “Unless diplomatic engagement resumes, the security environment is likely to remain volatile, with maritime stakeholders facing continued uncertainty.”
The Tenzan was observed approaching Hormuz late Thursday before going dark, and is now sailing in the Gulf of Oman. The supertanker is laden with nearly 1.8 million barrels of Das Island crude, and is signaling that it’s for orders, ship-tracking data show.
The Japanese government said a vessel linked to the country made a crossing on Friday, without naming the ship. Tokyo-based Kyoei Tanker Co. Ltd., which is listed as the ship’s operator on Equasis, didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
There were other warnings. The Joint Maritime Information Center said there were still mines in the middle of the strait, recommending a southern route near the Oman coastline. Maritime trade group BIMCO and analysts at RBC Capital warned that significant safety and security risks to shipping remain, including congestion and questions over how much control Iran will retain on traffic through the waterway.
There was optimism leading up to the signing of the interim deal. Just hours after it was inked on Thursday, ships carrying nearly 10 million barrels of oil were observed emerging outside the strait or were sailing through, including the first Saudi-owned tankers since the start of the war.
Meanwhile, around 40 very large crude carriers carrying nearly 80 million barrels of non-Iranian crude remain primed to sail out of the Persian Gulf should safe transits resume. That includes the four vessels headed toward the strait.
Photograph: Boats anchored off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran; photo credit: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
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