Man-made climate change intensified the rain that fell over Spain’s Valencia region in 2024, when flash floods and landslides caused at least 230 deaths and an estimated €29 billion in damages ($34 billion).
Global warming also meant that sudden and heavy rains ended up being more widespread, according to a scientific paper published in Nature Communications on Tuesday. Researchers led by Carlos Calvo-Sancho simulated the event at a kilometer-scale resolution under conditions today, and those in pre-industrial times.
The simulation showed that in today’s warmer world, there was a 21% increase in the rainfall rate over a critical six-hour period, and a 56% increase in the area with rainfall above 180 millimeters, compared to conditions in pre-industrial times. Record-high temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean during the summer of 2024 increased the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, adding to the intensity of the storm and changing atmospheric dynamics, all of which lead to heavier and more widespread rainfall, the paper concluded.
The floods in Valencia show that climate-change-induced weather shocks initially thought to be years away are already happening today, the researchers concluded. Some places experienced over ten times more rain in a few hours than they’d normally see in a month, leading to the collapse of roads, bridges and flood barriers.
The disaster highlights the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, and in particular of the Western Mediterranean, to extreme rainfall, the report’s authors said as they called on authorities to accelerate efforts to adapt infrastructure to climate change.
Photograph: The aftermath of flash floods in Chiva, Spain, on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. Photo credit: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg
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Flood
Climate Change
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