Weather forecasters from Colorado State University said on Thursday the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to fall below historical averages because of an El Nino formation sending winds across the southern U.S. that could rip apart tropical storms.
“While the intensity of the likely El Nino is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a moderate to strong El Nino is most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October,” the university said in a statement.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues until November 30, with the fiercest storms normally seen between August and October.
The closely watched Colorado State forecast expects two major hurricanes, with wind speeds above 111 miles per hour (179 kph), to develop in 2026 out of a total of six hurricanes among 13 named tropical storms.
Related: AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 11-16 Named Storms
The average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 produced three major hurricanes out of a total of seven hurricanes among 14 named tropical storms.
Also inhibiting storm development are cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic ocean. The western tropical Atlantic has sea surface temperatures above normal, which could aid storm development.
Four of the five hurricanes in 2025 were considered major. There were 13 named storms in 2025, causing more than $9 billion in estimated damage and claiming 126 lives.
Topics
Catastrophe
Natural Disasters
Hurricane
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