In the wake of the 2026 January reinsurance renewals, which saw double-digit declines in property catastrophe reinsurance pricing, analysts at J.P. Morgan have highlighted that while attachment points have largely held up, this has driven profitability to be likely better than the pricing levels suggest.
“In our 2026 outlook, we set out our expectation that property catastrophe pricing would reduce by double digits given the excellent year for reinsurers in 2025 with natural catastrophe claims coming in well below expectations for the year.”
As Artemis previously reported, reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter’s Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index was down 12% at the January 1 2026 renewals, marking the first double-digit decline since 2015, with per risk placements flat to down 15% depending on region.
J.P. Morgan’s analysts noted that the rate declines means that property catastrophe pricing is only marginally stronger on a price-only basis when compared to 2022’s levels.
“We think that 2022 is an important line as the reinsurance market saw a material hardening from January 2023 onwards. Prices are now only~7% higher than 2022 levels, with a ~9% decline in 2025 and the 12% decline in 2026,” the analysts explained.
Adding: “Having said that, we would emphasise that profitability is probably still better than the ~7% above the 2022 level suggests. There have been material increases in attachment points that have helped the reinsurers to absorb a lower percentage of catastrophe losses than prior to 2023.
“Attachment points have held firm at the renewals, which we believe is probably the only silver lining.”
The key point to remember, is that even with these significant drops, the absolute price levels haven’t returned to the soft market conditions of previous years.
They still remain above the rates seen in 2022 (just before the 2023 peak), and J.P. Morgan’s analysts are clearly emphasising that the current prices are still adequate and profitable for reinsurers, just not at the same levels of the so-called property market reset in 2023.
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