AccuWeather’s first prediction for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season calls for slightly below average activity.
AccuWeather’s experts forecast 11-16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater for the hurricane season, which starts June 1 and lasts through November.
The development of the complex weather pattern known as El Nino is expected to create wind shear, which typically disrupts the formation of hurricanes. AccuWeather said a super El Nino phenomenon has a chance of developing in the second half of the season. This could knock down more potential storms during the height of the season.
However, the last season with an El Nino was 2023. That year, 20 named storms formed – one of the most active seasons in history.
Meanwhile, working in favor of 2026 storm formation is warm water in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”
The average Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. No hurricanes made landfall in 2025, but the season did produce three Category 5 hurricanes, the second-most in a single season.
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