The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be quieter than many of the hyperactive years that preceded it. Six of the past seven seasons produced above-average Atlantic activity, including the record-setting 2020 season, which had 30 named storms. But lower storm counts can create a dangerous illusion that fewer hurricanes mean less risk. Some of the most devastating impacts in recent years have come not from the strongest storms on the traditional Saffir-Simpson scale, but from secondary threats such as inland flooding, storm surge, extreme rainfall and tornadoes.
That disconnect is becoming increasingly difficult for insurers trying to assess and communicate hurricane risk.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, developed in the early 1970s, remains the dominant system for categorizing hurricane severity. It classifies storms from 1 to 5 based solely on sustained wind speed. While wind intensity remains important, the scale does not account for many of the hazards that now drive some of the largest losses and highest casualty counts.
In practice, that means two storms with the same category rating can produce vastly different outcomes. It also means storms categorized as “weaker” can still become catastrophic events.
Hurricane Helene provided a stark example.
When Helene struck in 2024, the threats facing Florida’s Big Bend region differed dramatically from those in western North Carolina. Along the Florida coast, storm surge and coastal wind damage were the primary concerns. Hundreds of miles inland, mountainous terrain in North Carolina amplified rainfall-driven flooding, landslides and infrastructure collapse.
The traditional hurricane scale struggles to compare those impacts meaningfully. Yet both regions experienced similarly severe outcomes.
New approaches are beginning to address that gap by incorporating multiple hazards into hurricane severity forecasting. DTN recently introduced a Hurricane Threat Index that combines wind, storm surge, rainfall, inland flooding and tornado potential into a single severity rating available up to seven days before landfall. Using that methodology, both Florida’s Big Bend coast and western North Carolina would have registered comparable threat levels ahead of Hurricane Helene despite facing very different hazards.
For decades, coastal exposure dominated hurricane planning and insurance modeling. Today, inland flooding events are driving some of the industry’s largest losses. Tropical systems can travel hundreds of miles inland while still producing catastrophic rainfall totals, often in regions with less flood preparedness and lower risk awareness.
Insurers are already seeing the effects of that changing loss landscape. Global insured natural catastrophe losses reached an estimated $137 billion in 2024. According to Swiss Re, this marked the fifth consecutive year losses exceeded $100 billion. Increasingly, those losses are being driven not only by primary hurricane wind damage, but by secondary perils such as inland flooding, severe convective storms, storm surge and tornadoes.
AM Best noted this year that secondary perils have become major contributors to U.S. property insurance losses, forcing carriers to reevaluate catastrophe models and pricing assumptions that historically emphasized wind intensity above other hazards.
Recent storms illustrate this shift. In 2024, Hurricane Milton spawned at least 45 tornadoes across Florida in 2024 and contributed to insured loss estimates of up to $50 billion. Hurricane Debby, which made landfall as a Category 1 storm, caused devastating flooding across the Southeast and generated more than $4 billion in damage after stalling over the region. In both cases, secondary hazards became major drivers of damage and loss.
For insurers, the growing challenge is assessing tropical cyclone risk beyond wind intensity. Lower-category hurricanes can still produce catastrophic inland flooding, extended power outages, supply chain disruption and major claims exposure, particularly when secondary hazards persist long after landfall.
Even during quieter hurricane seasons, a single storm can still produce catastrophic losses, particularly when communities underestimate the risks posed secondary hazards and prolonged infrastructure disruption well beyond the coastline.
Wind speed remains a critical forecasting metric and an important indicator of structural damage potential. But hurricane categories alone no longer capture the hazards driving many of today’s largest losses. As storms increasingly produce overlapping threats, insurers will need more comprehensive risk models and weather risk intelligence to better anticipate hurricane impacts before landfall, not after.
Renny Vandewege is general manager of weather and climate intelligence at DTN, where he leads strategy for weather risk and forecasting solutions supporting industries impacted by severe weather, including insurance. DTN is a private weather company.
Topics
Catastrophe
Natural Disasters
Hurricane
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