The numbers aren’t all in, but it looks like Progressive is now the biggest private passenger auto insurer, based on an analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence that shows Progressive muscling past State Farm.
S&P GMI estimates Progressive’s U.S. private auto insurance direct written premiums for the 12 months ended March 31 totaled about $70.2 billion, roughly $1.5 billion more than the $68.7 billion tallied for State Farm over the same period—marking the first time since World War II that State Farm hasn’t been the top dog.
In calculating Progressive’s trailing-12-month private direct premiums written, S&P GMI estimated results for two New Jersey-domiciled subsidiaries which have not filed quarterly statements with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, S&P GMI indicated in a footnote to a graph showing the positioning of the two insurers for each year since 2022 and for the 12-months ended March 31, 2026.
The chart from S&P GMI’s media statement is reproduced below.
According to the text of the full S&P GMI report, state statute prohibits public dissemination of quarterly statements for New Jersey-domiciled insurers, which together wrote nearly $2.5 billion in direct premiums in 2025. That means S&P GMI analysts had to rely on past-calendar-year results and other inputs to estimate the two insurers’ contributions for the latest quarter. It also means that publicly available information will actually show that State Farm continues to hold a slight lead over Progressive on a trailing-12-month basis.
Making the adjustment produces a history-making result—ending State Farm’s 84-year reign as the nation’s top private auto insurer, S&P GMI said, noting that State Farm has ranked No. 1 since 1942. The report details the steps involved in calculating the adjusted premiums to include the two missing New Jersey insurers, also explaining why the adjustment likely understates the amount by which Progressive’s premiums now exceed State Farm’s total.
Even with no adjustments, Progressive’s first-quarter 2026 private auto direct premiums written of $18.1 billion surpassed State Farm’s $17.1 billion, marking the first time Progressive exceeded State Farm in a single quarter, S&P GMI noted.
While the report notes that S&P GMI previously estimated that Progressive outpaced State Farm—in the third quarter of 2025—it also notes that “seasonality in individual private auto books of business often leads to considerable variability in quarterly volumes.”
Still, the handwriting was on the wall for Progressive to surpass State Farm this year, S&P GMI analysts said, noting that a full-year 2025 showed the two giant insurers neck and neck, with State Farm leading by a very small (undisclosed) amount. While most of the analysis is based on information contained in Part 2-Direct Premiums Written of statutory P/C statements filed with the NAIC (for private passenger auto liability, private passenger auto no-fault and an auto physical damage component), S&P also highlighted much higher premium growth on a net basis, which is revealed by analyzing Progressive’s monthly earnings releases. According to S&P GMI, Progressive’s personal vehicle net premiums grew 11.6% in the trailing-12-month period, while State Farm’s premiums declined slightly (by 0.1% for the same period).
In 2025, Progressive gained 210 basis points of market share on State Farm, S&P GMI reported.
“Over the past three decades, Progressive has successfully leveraged technological evolution and changing consumer behavior to transform from a nonstandard auto insurer into a standard-market powerhouse across both independent agency and direct-to-consumer distribution channels, expanding its private auto market share by upwards of 16 percentage points,” S&P GMI said.
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Topics
Carriers
Auto
State Farm
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